Work package 5 – Drift modelling and prediction

The objectives of this work package are to assimilate observations collected within CIRFA into an ocean-ice forecast model, and to produce probabilistic ocean, sea ice and drift forecasts.

Ocean and ice forecasting at high latitudes, including the forecasting of drift of icebergs, oil-spills and other pollutants, is challenging due to a severe lack of observations of oceanic ‘weather’. Improved operational forecast systems will require increased amounts of high-resolution observations and the assimilation of such data into ocean and ice models. Also, because of the large observational uncertainties and the chaotic nature of the flow, the forecasts have to be probabilistic, i.e. presented as a range of possible outcomes based on an ensemble of slightly different model runs.

So assimilation and ensemble forecasting are the central issues to be addressed within WP5. The work will utilize ocean-ice models and assimilation techniques already in use at MET Norway today, but substantial advances will need to be made. The most crucial steps ahead are 1) to form proper descriptions of the errors or uncertainties for the new types of observations to be assimilated, and 2) to optimize the coupling between the assimilation system and the ensemble prediction system (EPS). The coupled system will also allow for the optimization of exchange coefficients of fluxes (momentum, heat, fresh water) between ocean, sea ice and atmosphere.

WP5- til hjemmesideWP5

WP5 members

Dr. Johannes Röhrs

WP5 co-leader, Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Prof. Rune Graversen

WP5 co-leader, UiT
+47 776 25242

Dr. Kai Christensen


Laust Færch

PhD fellow, UiT

Mapping and Modeling of Iceberg Occurrences in the Barents Sea

Edel Rikardsen

Researcher, MET

Edels work focuses on cean modelling and computational physics.

Yvonne Gusdal

Researcher, Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Silje Christine Iversen

PhD fellow, UiT/MET

The impact of observations in a high-resolution ocean assimilation system for the Norwegian coastal and shelf seas

Ann Kristin Sperrevik

Researcher, Norwegian Meteorological Institute
+47 91106515
Print Friendly, PDF & Email